Backroom diplomacy, shifting alliances and a surprise result in Rome ushered in American-born Cardinal Robert Prevost as the 267th successor of St Peter
The cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel (picture by Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/Getty Images)FOLLOWING Pope Francis's death on April 21, 2025, the College of Cardinals convened to elect his successor. The conclave began on May 7, 2025, with 133 cardinal electors participating. Two who were eligible to vote did not attend.
Those who did take part swore the Oath of secrecy of the conclave once inside the Sistine Chapel prior to the process of choosing the new pope.
But we can construct a fairly accurate picture of what went on from reports and rumours. The Vatican is a hotbed of gossip, and secrets don’t stay secret for very long.
The favourites
IN THE lead-up to the conclave, several prominent cardinals were considered ‘papabili’, or potential popes:
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin: From the Veneto region, the Vatican Secretary of State was viewed as a leading candidate due to his diplomatic experience. He is, in essence, the flagbearer of the conservative, traditionalist wing of the Church and so appealed to a significant bloc in the curia;
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: Archbishop of Bologna, known for his progressive stance and pastoral approach.
- Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: From Manila in the Philippines, Cardinal Tagle is Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, representing the Asian Church.
- Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa: From Lombardy, Cardinal Pizzaballa is Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Franciscan leader and seasoned peace broker. A pastoral, pragmatic figure, regarded as moderate rather than strictly conservative within Church circles. He wasn’t considered a frontrunner, but some felt he could have become a compromise choice.
- Cardinal Kevin Farrell: Dublin-born but long-serving in the US and Vatican, came to prominence as camerlengo, but was not considered a major papal contender. As Prefect for Laity, Family and Life, his administrative skill and moderate reputation were valued. But his limited international profile and lack of curial bloc support meant he was not seen as a favourite, and also at 77 he was probably seen as just on the wrong side of the age window. But it’s possible the Dublin man could have emerged as a dark horse compromise candidate. As it was, his working relationship with Cardinal Dolan probably helped the campaign to get Cardinal Prevost elected.
The conclave begins
CARDINAL Parolin was long the frontrunner, but concerns arose regarding his health and his role in the Vatican's China policy, which may have diminished his support among some electors.
It appears that Cardinal Robert Prevost emerged as a consensus candidate as the cardinals gathered in Rome for Pope Francis’ funeral.
It has now been acknowledged that Prevost had performed well during the pre-conclave general congregation meetings among cardinals, gaining the attention of electors of the Americas, of the Roman Curia, as well as Asian cardinals who oriented themselves towards him instead of Luis Tagle of the Philippines.
Cardinal Prevost’s background as a missionary in Peru, leadership in the Augustinian order, and role in the Vatican meant he emerged as something of a bridgebuilder.
Cardinal Timothy Michael Dolan of New York had already been a key supporter in 2013 of Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis, and Robert Prevost seemed, to Cardinal Dolan, the logical successor. This was his mission and he set about it with considerable determination, probably with the help of Cardinal Kevin Farrell.
Four rounds of voting
- The first ballot reportedly saw Parolin ahead, but failing to reach the two thirds majority of 89 votes. His count at this stage has been rumoured to have been around 40 votes, perhaps as many as 50 votes.
It is almost certain that as many as six or seven other cardinals also received votes.
- Second ballot (May 8, Morning): Support for Parolin, according to several reports, stayed steady, but failed to increase.
It was by now obvious that Prevost also enjoyed broad support from South American and Anglosphere cardinals (US, England, South Africa, Australia, India).
Parolin's support waned, while Prevost gained momentum as electors sought a unifying figure.
- Third ballot (May 8, Afternoon): Prevost secured at least 89 votes, surpassing the two-thirds threshold.
- Fourth ballot: A fourth vote was held, with Prevost receiving more than 100 votes, and was elected Pope Leo. Cardinal Parolin, it can be said, was the loser — observers noted his visible disappointment as he stood on the balcony as he stood on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica with Pope Leo and Cardinal Dolan.
Who backed whom?
The Anglo-American bloc
- Key figures: Cardinal Timothy Dolan (New York), Cardinal Kevin Farrell (Dublin-born, Vatican-based), Cardinal Wilton Gregory (Washington, D.C.).
- Influence: Cardinal Dolan is reported to have played a pivotal role in rallying support for Cardinal Robert Prevost, particularly among English-speaking cardinals from countries such as India and South Africa. Cardinal Farrell, as camerlengo and a respected Vatican administrator, likely provided institutional support for Prevost's candidacy.
The Latin American and global South coalition
- Key figures: cardinals from Latin America, Africa, and Asia who were aligned with Pope Francis's vision.
- Influence: Prevost's extensive missionary work in Peru and his fluency in Spanish endeared him to this group, who saw him as a continuation of Francis's pastoral and inclusive approach.
The reformist European wing
- Key figures: Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg), Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy).
- Influence: While initially potential candidates themselves, they may have shifted support to Prevost as a unifying figure who could bridge traditional and progressive elements within the Church.
The Traditionalist bloc
- Key figures: Cardinal Raymond Burke (USA), Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea), Cardinal Gerhard Müller (Germany).
- Influence: This group likely supported candidates like Cardinal Pietro Parolin but ultimately lacked the numbers to influence the final outcome significantly.
The Irish and English cardinals
Irish cardinals
- Cardinal Kevin Farrell: Born in Dublin, Farrell's role as camerlengo and his Vatican experience positioned him as a significant figure in the conclave.
- Cardinal Vincent Nichols (Archbishop of Westminster): As the senior English prelate, Nichols likely played a role in guiding the English cardinals' votes. While specific details are scarce, it's plausible that he supported Prevost as a consensus candidate.
See More: College Of Cardinals, Conclave, Pope Leo XIV, Vatican
