A NO-DEAL Brexit would most likely result in a hard border on the island of Ireland.
According to a British government dossier leaked to the Sunday Times “no new checks with limited exceptions” would initially be in place but are “likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks.”
The document also warns of potential food, fuel and medicine shortages in the event of the UK leaving without any form of transition deal in place.
The document also warned that the application of EU tariffs and regulations would disrupt trade in Ireland, forcing businesses to cease trading or relocate.
It warned that the agriculture and food sectors could be the hardest hit, with disruption and job losses likely.
The Times notes that the warnings represent forecasts of the most likely impacts of a no-deal Brexit rather than simply a worst-case scenario.
"On Day 1 of No Deal, Her Majesty’s government will activate the “no new checks with limited exceptions” model announced on March 13, establishing a legislative framework and essential operations and system on the ground, to avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side," the document reads.
"The model is likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks. With the UK becoming a “third [non-EU] country”, the automatic application of EU tariffs and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade.
"The expectation is that some businesses will stop trading or relocate to avoid either paying tariffs that will make them uncompetitive or trading illegally; others will continue to trade but will experience higher costs that may be passed on to consumers.
"The agri-food sector will be hardest hit, given its reliance on complicated cross-border supply chains and the high tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.
"Disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockades. Price and other differentials are likely to lead to the growth of the illegitimate economy.
"This will be particularly severe in border communities where criminal and dissident groups already operate with greater freedom. Given the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, there will be pressure to agree new arrangements to supersede the Day 1 model within days or weeks."
The document coincides with the publication of a report from the Sunday Business Post reports that warns Irish consumers could face with fuel supply shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit with rural Ireland most affected.
The Irish Petroleum Importers Association told the news provider that price hikes are would be likely in the event of World Trade Organisation tariffs being placed on products imported from Britain.
