A NEW medical report has issued a stark warning to the United Kingdom as it eases coronavirus restrictions.
The Academy of Medical Science has urged the British government to properly prepare for a second wave of Covid-19, warning that unless precautions are taken the country is facing an additional 120,000 deaths from the virus.
Currently, the UK is the third-worst in the world for deaths related to Covid-19, with live data from Johns Hopkins University indicating that almost 45,000 people have passed away with the virus, surpassed only by the US and Brazil.
According to the report, the UK is facing a second wave worst than the first, in part thanks to the disruption already caused within the NHS, including a backlog of patients in need of assessment as well as the winter flu season likely coinciding with the second wave of Covid-19 infections.
The study looks at projected numbers between September 2020 to June 2021, and modelling of a 'worst case scenario' which would see the R rate increasing to 1.7 from September suggests a peak in hospitalisations and deaths potentially worse than the first wave's peak which occurred in April this year.
If the Government does not make any preparations in the event of a second wave, the report predicts that the number of deaths between September - June 2021 could reach up to 119,900-- not including the number of deaths which would take place in care homes.
This figure, however, is "not a prediction but a possibility", according to Professor Stephn Holgate, a respiratory specialist and chair of the study.
"The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately," he said.
“With relatively low numbers of COVID-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us.”
The report,titled 'Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21' says only "intense preparation" can ease the pressure on the NHS and save lives this winter.
The recommended protections, some of whch are already being undertaken by the Government, include:
- Minimising the risk of community transmission with a public information campaign as well as specific advice for higher risk individuals and communities
- Ensuring the country is fully stocked with necessary PPE gear such as masks and hand sanitisers, that testing is at full capacity and infection-control in vulnerable areas such as care homes
- Ensuring there is adequate nursing, health and social care staff to prepare for and tackle a second wave of infections
- Increasing the capacity of the track and trace system to help cope with the winter flu season which will overlap with the second wave-- as both illnesses are similar, identifying cases of the virus will be more difficult
- Maximising the use of remote consultations for hospital and GP appointments so the virus is not transmitted in waiting rooms
- Maintaining a "population-wide surveillance system" to quickly identify new outbreaks of the virus
- Encouraging maximum uptake of the flu vaccine, particularly for staff in healthcare settings and vulnerable groups
The Academy of Medical Science report can be read in full here.
