CATHOLICS will outnumber Protestants within three years, an expert on the Peace Process has claimed.
And Dr Paul Nolan adds that the preservation of unionism could depend on winning over the support of Catholics.
Speaking to BBC News Northern Ireland, Dr Nolan said a Catholic majority could be in place by 2021 – the centenary of the creation of Northern Ireland as a result of the Government of Ireland Act.
“Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority,” said Dr Nolan, an independent researcher who has monitored the Peace Process.
Dr Nolan added: “The future of unionism depends entirely upon one thing – and I mean unionism with a small 'u' – it depends on winning the support of people who do not regard themselves to be unionists with a capital ‘U’.
'Not alienated by triumphalism'
“In other words, people who do not identify with the traditional trappings of unionism; people who would give their support for a UK government framework and that’s a sizeable proportion of Catholics, provided they are not alienated by any form of triumphalism or anything that seems to be a rejection of their cultural identity as nationalists.”
According to the 2011 Census, the Protestant population of Northern Ireland was 48 per cent, with those identifying as Catholic accounting for 45 per cent.
However figures from 2016 show that among the working-age population, 44 per cent are Catholic, compared to 40 per cent Protestant.
The full interview with Dr Nolan – a member of the Northern Ireland Policing Board and former member of the Community Relations Council – can be seen on The View at 10.40pm on BBC One Northern Ireland, which looks at the possibility of a united Ireland.
